Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
